How Russia Can Contribute to the North Korean Nuclear Problem Resolution Without Harming Its Own Interests

HOW RUSSIA CAN CONTRIBUTE TO THE NORTH KOREAN NUCLEAR PROBLEM RESOLUTION WITHOUT HARMING ITS OWN INTERESTS

The crisis near the Eastern borders of Russia has been going on for decades: the bursts of tension have put the Korean peninsula on the brink of war many times during the past 70 years. One of the recent emergency situations occurred when the South Korean corvette "Cheonan" was sunk in March 2010 near the so-called "north line of separation". The International Commission, which was established by South Korean government and included experts from several countries, concluded that it had been the North Korean torpedo attack that caused the catastrophe. This version was not accepted by neither China nor Russia. Therefore, the reaction of the international community and the UN Security Council to the attempts to increase the level of pressure and sanctions on North Korea was mixed. As the result of the incident the situation on the Korean peninsula deteriorated dramatically. The relations not only between the two Koreas, but also between great powers (especially between the US and China) worsened. Meanwhile, North Korea was struggling to develop new approaches to the DPRK's national administration. The West spent most of 2010 waiting for the internal crisis in North Korea and any other possible abrupt changes on the peninsula.

How great is the risk of widely discussed in the Western media uncontrolled developments of the situation on the peninsula, such as the collapse of North Korea, the military conflict, spontaneous unification of the North and the South? How to deal with the North Korean nuclear potential? Is there a risk of its military use or an uncontrolled spread of WMD technologies? How is the internal situation in North Korea likely to develop? How to build relations with North Korean leaders? What does Russia have to be prepared for and what steps can it take already now? How is it possible to use relations with South Korea for the benefit of Russia and Russian Far East?

Factor of North Korea in the international and regional situation

The impasse over the Korean settlement stems from the fact that North Korea is in the focus of rivalry between the parties that participate in the conflict resolution. This mostly concerns the US and China, while South Korea is anxiously watching them. Both China and the Republic of Korea (while the US is actively participating in this) have "plans of response to a crisis in North Korea", that, in fact, add up to occupation of the country. Since military-political leaders of those states that can be perceived as DPRK's partners don't have a clear vision of how the situation in North Korea will develop, they end up preparing for the most dramatic scenarios. A series of joined US-RK military exercise that was held right after the "Cheonan" incident were clearly intended to demonstrate North Korea the possible consequences of the next attack on South Korea (if any) and gave rise to anxiety among Chinese political leaders. The situation on the Korean peninsula became very similar to the one during the worst times of bloc confrontation at times of the Cold war.

Both internal and external factors are vital for the survival of North Korean political system. DPRK had to balance between the USSR and China when Kim Il Sung was its political leader. It looks like now DPRK wants to play the same game of balance with the USA and China in order to stay independent and turn the rivalry between them to advantage. The main goal of North Korean foreign-policy strategy is to start a dialogue with the USA and reach modus vivendi in relations with it.

At the beginning of the 21st century, having gone through the severe economic crisis and famine of the mid-1990s, the DPRK made some steps towards closer relations with South Korea, normalization of relations with Japan, European Union, the USA. Moreover, it almost completely froze its nuclear and missile programs, made attempts to conduct economic reforms and create somewhat at least resembling market economy. These all opened a way to creating an alternative to self-isolation of the country.

However, North Korean aspiration for international legitimization didn't correspond to the plans of the USA . The USA decided to raise the issue of North Korean "secret uranium enrichment program" and prevent the normalization of relations with North Korea. It became evident to DPRK that was impossible to reach compromise with the USA without using force and "hard power".

North Korean nuclear problem

North Korean current nuclear capability has mainly political and psychological importance, as from military point of view it doesn't pose a significant threat, in part because of the underdeveloped means of nuclear weapons delivery. The possibility of using nuclear weapons in a military conflict is low, though it might be used as a "last resort". But even in this case the chances that North Korea will use its nuclear capacity in a military conflict are low (mostly because of the so called "nuclear deterrence"). The direct threat from North Korean WMD to Russia consists in some possible unpremeditated actions or accidents.

Nevertheless, North Korean nuclear program poses a huge threat to the non-proliferation regime. It provokes Japan and - to a lesser extend - South Korea and Taiwan. Also, the possibility of North Korean nuclear materials and technologies falling into the hands of terrorists cannot be ignored.

DPRK also actively develops its missile program. Any further nuclear and missile experiments held by North Korea may lead to the change in military balance in the region. Therefore, Russia is interested in outing an end to North Korean nuclear and missile programs.

How to deal with the nuclear status of DPRK? Some experts believe that North Korea has to be treated as de-facto nuclear state, similar to the status of Pakistan and India. DPRK cannot return to the Non-Proliferation treaty as a nuclear state. The return as a non-nuclear state is also difficult to put into practice as North Korea rejects this variant. When speaking about North Korea, the concept of "denuclearization" itself is vague, as it is close to impossible to verify it in isolated DPRK. At best, denuclearization of North Korea without the change of regime is just an unverifiable declaration.

Diplomatic settlement of the nuclear problem: questions and options

After the US failure to stop North Korean nuclear program at the bilateral track a multilateral mechanism for problem discussion was created in 2003. The USA perceived this multilateral forum as a means of building united anti-North Korean coalition. This could