Dilemma of Sales Executive

Dilemma of Sales Executive

Dilemma of Sales Executive

Jaffer, a sales executive for the past 4 years, has won several rewards for his excellent job in meeting or exceeding sales targets. To meet his current target, Jaffer needs to meet with 100 SMEs over the last 29 days of the quarter. Meanwhile, Jaffer is requested to make a presentation to fellow sales executives on factors that helped him achieve his targets successfully. He will need one day exclusively for the preparation and travel and a day to give the speech thus leaving Jaffer with only 27 days to meet his goal. Floods, trade exhibitions, and bandh or hartal may prevent Jaffer from working to meet his target. He is not willing to miss the target and wants to make sure and find out the frequency of the happenings of the three events.

Available Data

It was observed that there is a 1 in 30 chance that it could flood. It was also observed that there are 14 in 730 chances that he may not work due to bandh/hartal. Chances of Jaffer not working due trade exhibition are 15 in 1,095.

Events Chances of Occurring

Bandh or hartal 0.033333

Floods 0.019178

Trade exhibition 0.013698

Σ= 0.06620

This is identified to be a binomial probability problem and solved by utilizing binomial probability formula: P(x) = nCx πx (1-π)n-x

where:

C = combination = n!/(x! * (n-x)! ) = 27!/(1! * (27-1)! ) = 27

n = number of trials = 27

x = success (days when Jaffer cannot move) = 1

π = probability of success (Jaffer cannot move) = 0.033333+0.019178+0.013698 = 0.06620

Therefore, P(1) = (27)*(0.0662012)*(1-0.0662012)26 = 0.3012

The case is also solved using excel software by utilizing the "Function" "binom.dist". The results are shown in the table below:

n = Number of trials = 27

x = Success = 1

π = Probability of success = 0.066201

P(x = 1) = Probability that Jaffer can not work = 0.301173

P(x = 1) = BINOMDIST(x,n, π,FALSE) = 0.301173

Conclusion

The results indicate there is a 30% chance that floods, trade exhibitions, and bandh or hartal will occur during one of the 27 days. Thus, there is a 30% chance that Jaffer will miss