Demographics Germany

Demographics

With a population of approximately 80 million (2015), Germany is the 16th most populous country in the world. It is also the most populous and the most productive economy in Europe with a GDP of almost $4 trillion (2013). Germany is also home to the 2nd largest immigrant population in the world, after the United States. With a birth rate of 8.4 births/1000 (2014) population, Germany has the 6th lowest birth rate in the world. Coupled by a death rate of 11.29 deaths/1000 (2014) population, the nation can be facing a major population crisis.

Germany has one of the world’s highest education levels with over 99% of the population, above the age of 15 years, able to read and write. It is also home to some of the most well-known universities with six of the top 100 universities in the world in Germany. In terms of economic development, Germany stands as a largely middle class society with a per capita PPP income of about $46,000 (2013), which places it amongst the top 20 countries in the world.

For all its prosperity, there are certain issues that plague the nation. Chief amongst them is the expectation of a steady decline in population and the working class. As outlined in figure 1, Germany’s population has shown a steady decline in the past decade. A death rate higher than the birth rate indicates a further decline in the near future. Adding to this, a birth rate of 1.47 children born/woman (2014) is a sub-replacement fertility rate, way below the approximately 2.1 births/woman replacement fertility rate.

Figure 1: Germany population trend (2005-2014)

Figure 2: Germany population by age (2014)

The implications of such a population decline can be far reaching in the economic development of the country. As can be seen in figure 2, Germany’s average age at 46.5 (2015) is the 2nd highest in the world. This leads to a very high pressure on the working population with the dependency rates rising. The total dependency ratio of 52.1% in 2014 is expected to increase to more than 90% by 2050. Germany is facing a population crisis very similar to Japan and failure to improve the trend can be detrimental to the economic performance of the country due to the decline in working population.