Revised Estimates of Annual National Income 2009-10

PRESS INFORMATION BUREAU

GOVERNMENT OF INDIA

Dated the 10 Jyaistha, 1932 Saka

31st May, 2010

PRESS NOTE

REVISED ESTIMATES OF ANNUAL NATIONAL INCOME, 2009-10

AND

QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT, 2009-10

The Central Statistics Office (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme

Implementation, has released the revised estimates of national income for the financial year

2009-10 and the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the fourth quarter

(January-March) of 2009-10, both at constant (2004-05) and current prices.

2. The CSO has also released the corresponding annual and quarterly estimates of

Expenditure components of the GDP in current and constant (2004-05) prices, namely the

private final consumption expenditure, government final consumption expenditure, gross fixed

capital formation, change in stocks, valuables, and net exports.

I REVISED ANNUAL ESTIMATES OF NATIONAL INCOME, 2009-10

3. The advance estimates of national income for the year 2009-10 were released on 8th

February, 2010. These estimates have now been revised incorporating latest estimates of

agricultural production, index of industrial production and performance of key sectors like,

railways, transport other than railways, communication, banking and insurance and government

expenditure.

4. The salient features of these estimates are detailed below:

(a) Estimates at constant (2004-05) prices

Gross Domestic Product

5. GDP at factor cost at constant (2004-05) prices in the year 2009-10 is now estimated at

Rs. 44,64,081 crore (as against Rs. 44,53,064 crore estimated earlier on 8th February, 2010,

showing a growth rate of 7.4 per cent (as against 7.2 per cent in the Advance Estimates) over the

Quick Estimates of GDP for the year 2008-09 of Rs. 41,54,973 crore, released on 29th January

2010. The upward revision in the GDP growth rate is mainly on account of higher performance

in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing', 'mining and quarrying' and 'manufacturing', than

anticipated.

6. In the agriculture sector, the third advance estimates of crop production released by the

Ministry of Agriculture showed an upward revision as compared to their second advance

estimates in the production of rice (89.31 million tonnes from 87.56 million tones), wheat

(80.98 million tones from 79.06 million tones), cotton (228.34 from 223.18 lakh bales of 170

kg. each) and sugarcane (274.66 million tones from 251.27 million tones) during 2009-10. Due

to this upward revision in the production, the growth rate in 'agriculture, forestry and fishing'

sector in 2009-10 has shown a growth rate of 0.2 per cent, as against the growth rate of (-) 0.2

per cent in the Advance estimates.

7. In the case of 'mining and quarrying', the Index of Industrial Production of Mining (IIPMining)

registered a growth rate of 9.7 per cent during 2009-10, as against the growth rate of

8.3 per cent during April-November, 2009, which was used in the Advance Estimates. Due to

2

this increase in the IIP-Mining, the growth rate in GDP is now estimated at 10.6 per cent, as

against the advance estimate growth rate of 8.7 per cent.

8. Similarly, the IIP of manufacturing registered a growth rate of 10.9 per cent during

2009-10, as against the growth rate of 7.7 per cent during April-November, 2009. Due to this

increase in the IIP, the GDP of 'manufacturing' sector is now estimated at 10.8 per cent, as

against the Advance estimate growth rate of 8.9 per cent.

9. However, the sector 'community, social and personal services' has shown a steep fall in

growth rate to 5.6 per cent in the revised estimates, as against the growth rate of 8.2 per cent in

the advance estimates, mainly due to greater fall in total expenditure of central government than

anticipated (during April-December, 2009, the total expenditure of central government showed

a rise of 18.5 per cent which was extrapolated in the advance estimates, whereas the RE, 2009-

10 showed a rise of 15.6 per cent in this item during 2009-10) and increase in the deflator in

terms of consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) from 11.4 per cent during April-

December, 2009 to 12.4 per cent during 2009-10. Besides, there is also more fall in the GDP of

other activities due to increase in the deflators than anticipated in terms of CPI-IW and

wholesale price index.

10. The sectors which showed growth rates of 5 per cent or more, are 'mining and

quarrying' (10.6 per cent), 'manufacturing' (10.8 per cent), 'electricity, gas and water supply'

(6.5 per cent) 'construction' (6.5 per cent), 'trade, hotels, transport and communication' (9.3 per

cent),