Middle Est Tension

SECTION 1: OVERVIEW OF MIDDLE EAST TENSION

1.1 Begins of the Riot

There are a grave situation in Middle East and North Africa as civilian protests and revolts erupted. Mohamed Bouazizi, was a Tunisian street vendor who set himself on fire on December 17, 2010, in protest of the confiscation of his wares and the harassment and humiliation that was allegedly inflicted on him by a municipal official and her aides. The fire that he set up on himself h ad also light up the fire of revolution in Tunisia and spread rapidly to the other Middle East and North Africa countries. No doubt, the death of Mohamed Bouazizi will be engraved on every resident of Middle East and North Africa, especially the Presidents of those countries.

Bouazizi's family claims he was publicly humiliated when a 45-year-old female municipal official, Faida Hamdi, slapped him in the face, spat at him, confiscated his electronic weighing scales, and tossed aside his produce cart. It was also stated that she made a slur against his deceased father. Bouazizi's family says her gender made his humiliation worse. Bouazizi, angered by the confrontation, went to the governor's office to complain. Following the governor's refusal to see or listen to him, he acquired a can of gasoline and doused himself in front of a local government building and set himself alight.

The protests began on 18 December 2010 in Tunisia. Due to similar hardships in the region and the protests' ultimate success in Tunisia, a chain of unrest was started. There are several factors that led to this revolution, which including dictatorship or absolute monarchy system, human rights violations, government corruption, economic decline, high level of unemployment, extreme poverty, and a number of demographic structural factors.

Some have described uprisings such as the one in Egypt as a Facebook revolution or Twitter revolution, referring to the social media web sites that facilitate much easier information sharing and more. The situations get worse as the extremist of regimes in the region deliberately supported by the West.

The revolution wave of demonstrations and protests, to date, there have been revolutions in Tunisia and Egypt, a civil war in Libya; major protests in Algeria, Bahrain, Iran, Djibouti, Iraq, Jordan, Syria, Oman, and Yemen; while minor protests in Kuwait, Lebanon, Mauritania, Morocco, Saudi Arabia, Sudan and Western Sahara. Others in the region, if they've been spared so far, will no doubt start to feel insecure as many rulers in the region are seen as illegitimate, corrupt or unwanted in some way.

Figure 1: Situation in Middle East

1.2 Political Effect of Revolution in Middle East

Table 1: The Flows of the Middle East Tension

COUNTRY DATE STARTED PROTEST TYPE CONSEQUENCES

Tunisia 18th December 2010 * Self immolation

* Nationwide protest

* Occupation of public spaces * Abscond of President Ben Ali and Prime Minister Ghannouchi.

* Dissolution of the political police and the former ruling party.

* Release of political prisoners

Libya 13th January 2011 * Nationwide protest

* Armed revolution

* Occupation of cities * Opposition forces seize control numerous Libyan cities.

* Formation of the National Transitional Council.

* UN-mandated NATO, Qatari and UAE intervention in support of the rebels.

Jordan 14th January 2011 * Minor protest

* Demonstrations * King Abdullah II dismisses Prime Minister Rifai and his cabinet.

Oman 17th January 2011 * Major protest * Economic concessions by Sultan Qaboos.

* Dismissal of ministers.

* Granting of lawmaking powers to Oman's elected legislature.

Yemen 18th January 2011 * Nationwide protest * President Saleh announces he will not seek for another terms in 2013.

* Resignation of MP's from the ruling party.

Political concessions by President Saleh.

Egypt 25th January 2011 * Self immolations

* Nationwide protest

* Occupation of public spaces

* Attacks on official building * Ouster of President Mubarak and Prime Minister Ahmed Shafik.

* Assumption of power by the Armed Forces.

* Suspension of the Constitution, dissolution of the Parliament.

* Disbanding of state security force.

Syria 26th January 2011 * Self immolations

* Major demonstrations * Release of political prisoners.

* Sacking of a Provincial Governor.

* Resignation of the Government.

SECTION 2: IMPACTS TO GLOBAL AND MALAYSIA'S ECONOMY

2.1 Crude Oil Price

Figure 2: 12 Months Crude Oil Price As Shown in USD

Crude oil can be considered as the most influential commodity available in the world. During the Middle East tension period, concerns over diminished oil supply and production has caused the oil price to rise continually. As shown in Figure 2 above, crude oil price kept on rising and even exceeded US$100 a barrel. In the end of January, Libya's oil crisis had caused the oil price to further escalate and even pass the price of US$100 per barrel.

As the largest oil producer in the world, the Middle East countries are the lifeblood of fuel supply for companies and countries from all around the world. Globally, oil price shocks are a bad news for the economy especially for those who are net crude oil importer countries or also those firms or producer that used oil as their input in their production process. For example, Italy is one of the countries that will fare badly. As the largest