Can North Africa Finally Embark on Its Long-Awaited Journey Towards Democracy?

Can North Africa finally embark on its long-awaited journey towards democracy?

Five years after the Arab Spring, the revolutionary wave which swept away corrupt leaders and governments still has not cleansed North Africa from its deep-rooted flaws. The popular uprisings which conveyed hopes of democracy for countries freshly freed from years of despotism and oppression proved to be far from successful. Libya is awash with the blood of civil war; Egypt’s longstanding tradition of military rule is set to endure and Tunisia is hesitantly recovering after 40 years under Ben Ali. Besides, overall lack of familiarity with democratic principles propels political Islam as a cohesive force within the region, along with its lot of uncertainties. The threat of Islamic extremism, a result of the disorder characteristic to revolutions, is not to be downplayed, as ISIS’ influence grows by the day in the area. Numerous challenges await the new regimes, but can they rise above them to nurture a tradition of democracy?

I. From the Arab Spring to the Arab Winter

North Africa is among the few regions that have yet to experience genuine democratic regimes. Since their independence, countries in the area have been ruled by unrivalled political factions reluctant to initiate a democratic transition process. The tensions which have been brewing for decades culminated in 2011 when popular revolt resulted in the overthrow of leaders including Mubarak, Gaddafi and Ben Ali. They were urged to relinquish power, yet leaving behind them a crumbling economy exhausted by decades of embezzlement and misappropriation. However, the fierce will to overcome decades of political oppression overshadowed long-term implications. In Tunisia and Egypt, the main leaders might have been toppled, but the essence of the regimes lives on.

After achieving independence, Arab states have failed to ensure stable development: overall failure of economic policies, decline of Arab nationalism and unprecedented corruption of sitting presidents contributed to the blatant inability to accomplish any step towards modernization. Moreover, insufficient improvements in social welfare and ever-widening discrepancies have left the people resigned and despondent. Therefore, the Arab world obviously lacked the fundamental ingredients for a truly democratic experience. The region did not need a political revolution, but an educational one that would plant the seeds of political maturity and form a generation of leaders who understand the needs of their countries. The removal of a figurehead and the election of a legislature kept away from the levers of real power would certainly not be enough to succeed. Furthermore, the vivid will for democratic change could not escape deeply embedded social realities: Islam is a vital part of North African politics and society.

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Can the Arab world overcome the weight of the dictatorships of old?

The political vacuum created after the uprisings was filled with Islamist parties which were driven by their leaders’ personal agendas more than Islamic principles. Islamist parties capitalized on the immense role of religion in forming the thinking and behaviour of Arabs. By doing so, they thoughtfully played the card of religion and endorsed the rhetoric of justice and social reform to their own advantage. Moreover, some regard the rise of Islamic State as an unintended consequence of the Arab Spring. Although other factors such as foreign interventionism cannot be discarded, the bottom line is that, instead of producing a democratic North Africa, the Arab Spring contributed to the chaos that has given the region and the world a new terror. This is all the more tragic as Arab dictators clung to power arguing that their continued existence was a necessary one to forestall the threat of Islamism and anarchy. Although this can never justify human rights violations and non-existent political freedom, the argument proved to be self-fulfilling, as the authoritarian regimes were able to thwart the menace of Islamic extremism due to their fierce hold on civil society.