Battleground States

Brooke Bondurant

Battleground States

Colorado: Obama Another state that appears to be basically tied. According to examiner.com, in 2008 Obama won the state by nine points, Republicans had a larger turnout advantage compared to Democrats, but Independent voters ended up supporting Obama over McCain. But on the other side, Bush beat Kerry in Colorado by five points. Independents in more recent polls surprisingly favored Obama by 8%. It will definitely be decided with the independent voters, but I think Obama can pull through here.

Iowa: From data shown in Iowa on who is registered to vote the polls, according to POLITICO, seem to be closer to the 2004 election, when Bush narrowly won the state. I don't believe that Obama will have such a decisive lead similar 2008 and Obama's early voting lead is smaller than he had in 2008. It will be very close but I think Romney has a pretty good shot at taking this state.

Florida: This state is vital for Romney to win. Romney has very close relations with Governor Rubio and this helps to support local morale. Since early October most polls taken in Florida have shown Romney to be ahead and the examiner shows one poll at tie. Obama is not above 50% in any of the 25 polls taken in October or November. Overall I think that Romney will be able to pull off this state.

Ohio: Ohio is the big swing state that will probably play a huge role in determining how the election will turn out. Back in 2008 Obama won Ohio by 5% by about 262,000 votes. In this race a large number of independents went for Obama. Obama currently holds a 3% lead in Ohio According to POLITICO. I predict Obama will be able to pull out a win in this state and take the election.

Wisconsin: According to Huffington Post, Romney has not lead in the polls in Wisconsin since mid August. Although there are two recent polls from Rasmussen Reports have the race tied 49-49, every other poll predicts Obama ahead. A helpful thing for the Republicans though is that Paul Ryan is a congressman from Wisconsin. I predict though that Obama will be very strong in this state.

Nevada: Romney has lead in zero Nevada polls this year, according to POLITICO. The only positive result he's had is a tie in a Rasmussen Reports poll in early October. Obama has held a lead at or above 50% in pretty much every recent state poll. Since the state is heavily populated with union members and Hispanic voters, I think that the odds are stacked against Romney in this state.

Pennsylvania: Romney is still a serious contender for the state. Although the majority of recent polls show Obama below 50%, this is still too little, too late. Pennsylvania has historically not elected a Republican for president since the year 1988. So for almost a quarter century the state has voted for the Democratic